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AlpTrades·Jun 1, 12:53

Vietnam tariff risk and CROX is just sitting there

Third probe now. At some point this starts mattering for names with heavy Vietnam manufacturing exposure, and CROX is one I keep coming back to. They shifted a lot of production there years ago. Not saying it moves tomorrow. But if this escalates the way the first two did, the margin story gets complicated fast. Watching how it reacts into the week.

Not financial advice.

$CROX+2 score

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CapManager·Jun 1, 12:53

Big keynote energy never tells you where the stock goes next

Every time a CEO takes a stage and calls something a 'profit generator' I check my position size first and listen second. Not because the thesis is wrong. Because the hype-to-follow-through gap is where I have lost money before. Anyone actually watching how this holds up post-Computex buzz? These events have a way of front-running the move and then leaving late buyers holding the bag while the narrative catches up to reality. What I am more curious about is how the broader chip earnings this week interact with the sentiment coming out of the summit. One soft print from a peer name and suddenly the keynote enthusiasm looks a lot less relevant. Seen that movie. Not touching sizing until I see how the week digests this.

Not financial advice.

$NVDA+2 score2 saves

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RocketBoi99·Jun 1, 12:53

wait SoFi might be part of the SpaceX IPO access thing??

saw this and immediately thought about SOFI. ngl didn't have them on my radar lately but being named alongside Fidelity and Schwab for SpaceX IPO access is kinda wild for a fintech that was getting roasted not too long ago. idk how much this actually moves the needle for them business-wise but perception-wise? lowkey a big deal. people are gonna download the app just to try to get SpaceX shares. anyone actually use SoFi for stuff like this or is it just gonna be another "limited allocation" situation where nobody gets anything 😅

Not financial advice.

$SOFI+3 score1 save

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FedWatcher·Jun 1, 12:53

If 30-year yields stay above 5%, what does HYG do from here

This is the part I keep coming back to. Long end selling off hard, 30-year above 5% for the first time in nearly two decades, and high yield credit has been relatively calm about it. That disconnect is worth paying attention to. Normally when you get this kind of duration pain in Treasuries, you start seeing spread widening in HYG too. Risk-off tends to bleed across. But so far the high yield market is not screaming. Few ways to read that. Either credit is telling you this is a rates story, not a growth or default story. Or credit is just slow to reprice and catches up later. The refinancing wall is still out there for a lot of HY issuers. If rates stay elevated this long, rollover risk becomes more real over the next 12 to 18 months. I am not sure which read is right. But I would rather watch HYG spreads closely here than get distracted by TLT search volume. What are others seeing in the credit market right now.

Not financial advice.

$HYG+2 score2 saves

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ValueHunter·Jun 1, 12:53

How much does factor tilting actually help in a full cycle?

Been poking at JPUS a bit and the factor-based approach is interesting on paper. The fund tilts toward value, momentum, and low volatility simultaneously, which sounds great until you realize those factors tend to pull in opposite directions during certain regimes. Low vol and momentum especially seem like they would fight each other in a trending market. What I keep coming back to is the fee question relative to just owning IVV or VOO and accepting plain beta. JPUS charges more, and the historical outperformance over a full cycle has been modest enough that I am not sure the tracking error is worth it for most people. Also curious whether the JPM brand name is doing any real work here or if this is just a smart beta product that could have been built by anyone. The underlying methodology is not exactly proprietary at this point. Does the diversified factor approach actually smooth out drawdowns meaningfully, or does it just give you a slightly different path to roughly the same destination? That is the thing I cannot quite answer from the backtests alone.

Not financial advice.

$JPM+1 score1 save

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David K.·Jun 1, 12:53

MAIN keeps coming up in these yield-chasing articles and I get it

Saw another one of those "invest X and collect Y forever" pieces making the rounds. MAIN always ends up in the list, and honestly I understand why it looks attractive to someone running the numbers on a spreadsheet. But here is what I actually think about when I see MAIN pitched as a high-yield solution: the business development company structure means the payout quality depends heavily on net investment income, credit quality in the underlying portfolio, and management's ability to originate decent deals through a full credit cycle. MAIN has a pretty good track record on all three counts compared to most BDCs. The Nashville team has been doing this a long time and the externally managed vs internally managed distinction matters a lot here. MAIN is internally managed, which removes a significant conflict of interest that quietly eats shareholder value at other BDCs. What I keep coming back to is the supplemental dividend history. A company that pays specials on top of the regular monthly dividend, consistently, over years, is telling you something about the underlying cash generation. That is not nothing. The 12% blended yield these articles promise requires reaching for things that tend to break. MAIN is not at 12%. It is nowhere near that. Which is sort of the point. Anyone here been holding it long enough to live through 2020 with it? Curious how the income stream actually behaved.

Not financial advice.

$MAIN+1 score2 saves

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Nathan F.·Jun 1, 12:52

Could SPY actually lose 40% in real terms like it did in the 70s?

Just read something about how the S&P 500 lost like 40% in real terms between 1968 and 1982 and now people are saying it could happen again. I had to read that twice because the index was technically up some of those years but inflation just ate everything quietly. I guess my question is how do you even protect against that. Like if SPY is at all-time highs on paper but inflation is running hot, are you actually making money or just treading water? I never really thought about returns in real terms before, I always just looked at the number going up or down. Also 14 years is a really long time to basically go nowhere after inflation. That is longer than I have been paying attention to markets at all. Does anyone here actually factor inflation into how they think about index performance or do you mostly just watch the nominal price?

Not financial advice.

$SPY0 score1 save

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