If 30-year yields stay above 5%, what does HYG do from here
This is the part I keep coming back to. Long end selling off hard, 30-year above 5% for the first time in nearly two decades, and high yield credit has been relatively calm about it. That disconnect is worth paying attention to. Normally when you get this kind of duration pain in Treasuries, you start seeing spread widening in HYG too. Risk-off tends to bleed across. But so far the high yield market is not screaming. Few ways to read that. Either credit is telling you this is a rates story, not a growth or default story. Or credit is just slow to reprice and catches up later. The refinancing wall is still out there for a lot of HY issuers. If rates stay elevated this long, rollover risk becomes more real over the next 12 to 18 months. I am not sure which read is right. But I would rather watch HYG spreads closely here than get distracted by TLT search volume. What are others seeing in the credit market right now.
Not financial advice.
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